Afghan Warlords are Looking for US Support

The Washington Times has an article this week that describes how Gen. Dostum, a long time Afghan warlord, states that he could defeat the Taliban if the U.S. would provide support. Dostum has been around the block several times, and was a partner of U.S. Special Forces during the post-9/11 invasion. However, the situation in Afghanistan is never that simple (ever), so go read the article.

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/sep/22/afghan-warlords-will-fight-if-us-gives-aid/

For more background, I recommend you pick up the book 'Horse Soldiers' by Doug Stanton. It chronicles the early days of U.S. Special Forces in Afghanistan, and features Dotsum as well as a few other warlords.

http://www.amazon.com/Horse-Soldiers-Extraordinary-Victory-Afghanistan/dp/1416580514/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1253799501&sr=8-1

Suffice it to say, Afghanistan is a thorny problem, and will remain so. Whatever the solution, I'm convinced that we will need the support and action of the locals to deny the Taliban and al Qaeda
refuge there.

Posted via email from merrick.stream.data('all')

What is at Stake in Afghanistan

Great quick read on what is at stake in our conflict in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan: What Is at Stake? - Brookings Institution

Of particular interest is the part where the author ties Pakistan into the fate of Afghanistan. Everyone needs to remember that Pakistan is a nuclear nation, with a small stockpile of weapons.

"A victory for the Afghan Taliban would encourage its new partners, the Pakistan Taliban, in their struggle to take over the world’s second largest Muslim country. This February several Pakistani Taliban leaders united their forces and proclaimed their allegiance both to Omar and bin Laden."

This issue isn't going away soon, and it isn't going to be solved with force of arms alone.

Theater or Reality? Pakistan Practices Shooting Drones

Since August, the U.S. Military has been using drones to hit Taliban and al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan. While this has been officially condemned by the Pakistani government, there has been nothing more than words on the issue. Recently, the Pakistani military conducted exercises in targeting and shooting down drones.

Pakistan's Army Practices Drone Shoot-Downs | Danger Room from Wired.com

It's an interesting read, and the region remains worth everyone's attention.

Taliban and al Qaeda Split?

I don't have time for an in depth analysis, but this could be very interesting news.

Sources: Taliban split with al Qaeda, seek peace - CNN.com

First of all, I think it's interesting on two points. First, this is a shift in Saudi policy regarding Afghanistan. For the past 25-30 years, the Saudi government and Royal family has always dealt with Afghanistan through intermediaries, usually Pakistan. For these talks, they are going directly to the parties involved.

Second, we must remember that al Qaeda's relationship with the Taliban has always been one of convenience for al Qaeda. It would appear that the Taliban have begun to question the value of that relationship.

Or, it's all business as usual, with double talk and misdirection. Very possible.

Musharraf Resigns

President Musharraf of Pakistan has resigned.

Another article.

Okay, this bit of news hit me this morning, but I didn't have time to comment on it. Still don't really, so here's the highlights.

Pakistan scares the crap outta me and it should frighten you too. They are having stability issues, internal political violence, and they can't seem to shake the Taliban in their tribal frontier. All that isn't terrible... but they also have nuclear weapons. Sleep on that.

Musharraf wasn't the best game in town, but at least he played ball (to a point) with the U.S. That may have actually hurt him politically.

The ISI (Inter Services Intelligence), which is the Pakistani intelligence agency, has historical ties to fundamental Islam, ties to assassination plots (both against enemies and internally) and generally does whatever it wants. Without a strong hand guiding the ISI, or at least in collusion with it, they concern me. A lot.

I repeat, Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

As I was reading reports in Musharraf's resignation, a quote jumped out at me: 'Local media reports said he had been granted "safe passage" out of the country.' This is like saying, "President Bush resigned today, and was granted safe passage out of the country." That tell you anything?

I'm not a complete expert on counter-terror or counter-proliferation, but I certainly wish for more stability in any nation with a nuke arsenal.

File all that away in your happy box. I hope to have some more on this topic as I find some time to do some reading.