Good Luck, NOLA

Gustav has cleared Cuba and is heading across the Gulf of Mexico, intensifying as it goes. As of right now, it looks like landfall in Louisiana sometime Monday. The latest computer guidance is showing a slight westward drift of the track, which is good news for New Orleans.

The city has obviously learned some lessons from Katrina, and evcautions began yesterday and appear to be proceeding well. Hopefully, if Gustav hits the city there won't be a large loss of life. I expect that the damage in the city could be catastrophic if the levees on the east side of the city fail. That said, the Army Corps of Engineers has said that the levees should hold a Category 3 storm surge. Let's hope that is correct and they perform as they are designed. And while Gustav shifts farther and farther west, the probability of the New Orleans levees seeing a Cat 3 or Cat 4 storm surge drops.

But even if New Orleans stays mostly dry, wherever Gustav comes ashore is going to see heavy damage.

So, to everyone looking down the barrel of Gustav, good luck and God bless.